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MEB: Which investments should be favoured in a “fractured”

world? By Milena Radoman

Elections in the United States, escalating multi-faceted conflicts, falling interest rates ... Economist
Jean-Pierre Petit gave his analysis and market forecast to members of the Monaco Economic Board.

In mid-September Jean-Pierre Petit depicted flexible production system and rapid political to cut interest rates. “Today, the start of
a “fractured” world to an audience of Monaco decisions (including those of the US Central the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle suggests that
high flying players and members of the Bank) enabling it to “get into fighting order”, generalised easing is desirable worldwide (...)
MEB. According to the President of Cahiers an unrivalled capacity for innovation, the The potential for rate cuts is not negligible,
Verts de l'Économie, there are going to strength of the dollar, and not to be forgotten, especially in Europe”. In terms of investments,
be five fractures in the coming years: a “key variable”: productivity, which has been the Chairman of Cahiers Verts recommends
technological, climatic, energy, demographic on the rise for the past two years. According overweighting good-quality sovereign and
and democratic. All the more so as we are to Jean-Pierre Petit, the outcome of the corporate bonds, especially emerging debt
witnessing an increase in “multifaceted presidential elections is unlikely to change (but not Japanese debt!), and favouring
conflict” (economic, military, commercial, the situation, although a Trump victory would gold, the Swiss franc and even the Chinese
technological and energy) and particularly be more complicated for Europe because of renminbi. On the equity market, medium-
with a rise in restrictions on free trade . The increased protectionism... If Kamala Harris term opportunities are few and far between,
obvious consequence is moderate global were to win, the economist believes she with infrastructure and services remaining
economic growth for all countries, with the would pursue a slightly more left-wing policy, options. As for technology, the bubble may
expansion in China levelling off and Europe, and so more effective for the bond market be about to burst, but even if it hasn't as yet,
handicapped by its ageing population and its than the equity market, with a downward in the short term avoid overweighting this
lag in digital technology, losing momentum. effect on the dollar... sector in your portfolio.
The United States is doing well, due mainly to On the monetary front, the resumption
its limited dependence on external energy, a of disinflation will require central banks *Conference organised in partnership with Jutheau Husson.

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