Page 77 - Monaco Economie 126

M - Three Scenarios for Inflation and Growth

by Milena Radoman
Invited by the M and its partners , in March ean Christophe Caffet, Chief conomist at Coface,
delivered his forecasts for the coming months.

“We’ve escaped the worst, but the best won’t by 2030”. growth; the second, which is favoured
be immediate! Faced with an audience of Inflation fell slightly but remains very by Coface, anticipates a continuation of
80 business leaders and officials who came worrying, while GDP growth forecasts stagflation; the third, more pessimistic (but
to listen to him, COFACE Chief Economist are generally weak, which could lead to a with a 30% probability according to Coface)
Jean-Christophe Caffet knows full well situation of stagflation. Major producers envisages a recession, caused by excessive
that since the Russian invasion of Ukraine of raw materials such as Africa, Brazil and action by central banks to counter inflation,
in 2022, the international context remains the Middle East are doing well and also, which would seriously harm global growth.
uncertain. For this former TotalEnergies to a lesser extent, countries such as India The famous ratings issued by Coface -
employee, the energy crisis is not behind and Japan. Actions by central banks to Country risks, Risks by business sector and
us yet. While prices have returned to pre- contain inflation through tightening policy Political and social risks - indicate higher
Ukrainian war levels, thanks in particular over the past year should start to be felt risk in almost all regions of the world.
to a particularly mild winter and lower with a drop in consumption and investment. “Although global trends are emerging, the
consumption, China’s economic rebound Bankruptcies, meanwhile, are accelerating current situation is characterised by great
after its disastrous policy in the face of with a change from “whatever it costs to divergence from one country to another.
Covid and the uncertainty of gas supplies support the economy” to “whatever it costs We therefore need to take a detailed look
could change that. Another concern is to curb inflation”. at each country in terms of investments”,
insufficient investment from stakeholders The Chief Economist puts forward three stipulates Jean-Christophe Caffet.
in the sector. “Currently, according to the scenarios for the coming months: the first,
International Energy Agency, investments considered unlikely, foresees a soft landing
made only cover half of what is needed with inflation under control and positive 1. Gramaglia and Banque Populaire Méditerranée

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