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2003: a much awaited year

Despite the dismal context of a war that persists in the Ukraine and worrying inflation, Paolo Di

Gaeta, international finance specialist, believes that the Western economies are well prepared to
weather the storm.

We have certainly known better times for Western countries, while they managed to I believe this set of reactions from the
the exchange ew ear’s greetings. weather the storm during 2022, have been European countries will protect them
2023 will open with an ongoing, high- able to take measures to face the future” he from collapse during the coming year.
intensity, civilian-focused war between iev explains. “First of all, with regard to inflation, Especially since, it should not be forgotten,
and Moscow, which continues to fuel the the European Central Bank continues to the American economy, which has a knock-
now widespread inflation, initially caused demonstrate its wisdom by limiting the on effect on Europe, remains on solid
by soaring energy and commodity prices rise in the base interest rate to around 2%. foundations and is benefiting from the
triggered by the outbreak of the conflict. A measure which, of course, cannot rapidly extraordinary financial doping decreed by
To complete the ambient euphoria we put an end to inflation, but which does have oe Biden’s government”.
must of course add the risks of major the merit of enabling States, companies and
social and political crises in the Southern individuals to borrow at affordable rates for The power of logic
Mediterranean and in certain black African investment, and so to sustain economic The fact remains that, if the Western
states as a result of threats to free trade in activity. In addition, another reassuring economy can resist in the short term, the
cereals and other food products originating observation concerns the security of energy same may not apply over a longer period:
from the Ukraine and Russia , the major supplies: during 2022, the European Union certain “recipes” may only work once ...
suppliersfor the area. has been able to find alternate suppliers “It is true that the destabilisation of prices
These stormy prospects inevitably and sign new contracts in order to avoid and trade generated by this conflict is
prompt many analysts to predict a period humiliating defeat by Moscow This is how: strong, and if it persists it could cause a
of stagnation, or even recession for and we cannot repeat it enough, the EU has “major clash”, both economic and political”
Western Europe - synonymous with rising already secured 93% of its gas needs for is Paolo Di Gaeta’s analysis. “But this is also
unemployment and declinIng consumer 2023! The same reactivity is at work on why I believe in an inevitable and imminent
purchasing power - because it is too the oil front through additional contracts appeasement: because no one, absolutely
dependent on energy resources and minerals with producers other than Russia, and no one across the planet has anything to
of all kinds for its needs. there has even been a return to the market gain from chaos. China, the world’s largest
of suppliers who have been banned for a workshop, knows this better than anyone and
Effective countermeasures long period, such as Venezuela, where the its leaders have already affirmed this on the
Paolo Di Gaeta, international finance United States has just lifted its embargo on international stage. We can be sure that its
specialist who resides in Monaco, does its crude oil exports. leaders are already working to convince their
not belong to this declinist camp and bases Moreover, it should be noted that the price Russian counterparts that it is high time for
his optimistic approach to times ahead on of a barrel is currently lower than it was at calm to return and that they have the means
tangible current parameters. the start of 2022, i.e. before the start of the to back up their conviction with their partner
“Ofcourse the situation is difficult, but the Russian offensive! who is nevertheless also their neighbour ”

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