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MEB: “If the US economy is in recession, we don’t see how

Europe could ignore it.”

As a guest of the Monaco Economic Board (MEB), Christophe Barraud, Chief Economist at Market
Securities, delivered his economic forecasts for the end of 2023 and 2024.

credit conditions are tightening, which could
lead to lower consumption, a key driver of “The numbers don’t lie and
growth in America. Christophe Barraud thus in the Principality they are
predicts a recession for the end of the year good.”
with a GDP evolution of 1.2% for 2023 and The uncertain economic context was also part
more pessimistic prospects than the general of the discussions at the last MEB Members’
consensus for 2024, with growth of only 0.4%,” Meeting at the end of June. “Right now, we
summarises the MEB in a press release. don’t really know what to hold on to […] What
we have experienced in the past 12-18 months
ECB rate hike has not been seen for decades; and all of you
The eurozone, for its part, will have narrowly have to make important decisions in this
avoided recession but, according to the context to get things right, hiring people or not,
forecaster, the end of the year will be negative, investing or not, deciding whether to change
being highly exposed to any unfavourable trends computer equipment,” said Jean Castellini,
in the international context… Still according Minister of Finance and Economy, to the 350
to the MEB, “For 2024, Christophe Barraud is business people and personalities present. He
clearly being more pessimistic than the general did, however, try to reassure guests by citing
data from the new Monaco in Figures*. “The
consensus projections, with GDP growth limited numbers don’t lie and in the Principality they
Christophe Barraud, Chef économiste chez / to 0.4% compared to 1%.” Another downside from
Chief Economist at Market Securities are good, even very good.” For example, in Mo-
the forecaster concerns central bank policy. As naco, turnover has increased by €600 million.
the tightening of credit conditions is beginning to Riding the wave of cutting-edge sectors, MEB
“We remain in a scenario where global growth affect economic activity, inflation has passed its President, Michel Dotta, announced that the
continues to slow: it should be close to but 2022 peak and Christophe Barraud forecasts a MEB would organise workshops on artificial
slightly above 2.5% this year. Nevertheless, cut in Fed rates from the fourth quarter of 2023. intelligence. “At one time, Monaco was a little
if we look in detail, there is a fairly marked In Europe, inflation, on the other hand, which behind on digital […] Now we are on the right
divergence between what will happen in is still high excluding energy and agricultural track but at the cost of great effort. We must
developed countries and what will happen in products, has led the European Central Bank not make the same mistakes with generative
China. On 16 May at the Novotel, Christophe (ECB) to raise rates further, as the economist artificial intelligence.”
Barraud, for many years regularly voted best had predicted; and ECB President, Christine The next MEB Members’ Meeting, with its
forecaster in the world by Bloomberg for Lagarde, has announced that “only a significant great tradition of networking over cocktails,
China, the United States and the eurozone, change in the outlook” would avoid this trend will be preceded by a B2B session.
outlined his projections in front of an audience continuing into summer 2023.
of more than 80 local business leaders and
professionals. The economist was more 50 acteurs économiques et de nombreuses personnalités de la Principauté ont participé à la 45 édition des Rendez-vous
e
optimistic about China, based on the recovery des adhérents. / 350 business leaders and many personalities from the Principality took part in the 45th edition of the Members’ Meeting.
of air traffic, which could still progress
internationally, and real estate, which started
to rise again at the start of the year, thanks
to tax policies and strong investments from
authorities. As the Chinese have saved twice
as much as usual due to health restrictions
and given their low inflation, Christophe
Barraud predicts GDP growth of 5.8% in the
Middle Empire at the end of the year and a
favourable outlook for 2024.
On the other hand, the outlook seems bleaker
for the United States. “In addition to the financial
crisis affecting small and medium-sized banks,

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